2020 SAVVAGE SCORES

Using the logistic regression model for estimating the odds of a legitimate pro-bowl nomination as featured by Football Outsiders in 2016, we can use a linear model to estimate the log pro bowl odds of every tight end combine participant from the 2020 drills. With these players' pro-day data coming in at a later date, there's a good chance that a couple players clear the 6% success threshold (as established by historical data). For example, assuming Albert Okwuegbunam can manage at least a 28 inch vertical at his pro day, we can conclude he's likely to clear success threshold of this model.

Name	Height	Weight	Vertical	40 time	Vert+Hgt	Weight/40	log odds	P(AP1)
Cole Kmet	78	262	37	4.7	115	55.7	0.35	26.20%
Albert Okwuegbunam	77	258	28*	4.49	105	57.5	0.07	6.54%
Stephen Sullivan	77	248	36.5	4.66	113.5	53.2	0.06	5.95%
Adam Trautman	77	255	34.5	4.8	111.5	53.1	0.04	3.50%
Dalton Keene	76	253	34	4.71	110	53.7	0.03	3.28%
Colby Parkinson	79	252	32.5	4.77	111.5	52.8	0.03	3.00%
Dom WoodAnderson	76	261	35	4.92	111	53.0	0.03	2.97%
CJ O'Grady	76	253	34	4.81	110	52.6	0.02	1.84%
Brycen Hopkins	76	245	33.5	4.66	109.5	52.6	0.02	1.60%
Devin Asaisi	75	257	30.5	4.73	105.5	54.3	0.02	1.48%
Charlie Woerner	77	244	34.5	4.78	111.5	51.0	0.01	1.18%
Harrison Bryant	77	243	32.5	4.73	109.5	51.4	0.01	0.85%
Josiah Deguara	74	242	35.5	4.72	109.5	51.3	0.01	0.81%
Charlie Taumoepeau	74	240	36.5	4.75	110.5	50.5	0.01	0.70%
Hunter Bryant	74	248	32.5	4.74	106.5	52.3	0.01	0.66%
Mitchel Wilcox	75	247	31	4.88	106	50.6	0.00	0.24%

*hypothetical pro-day value

While this model is still in the validation phase, we've had some promising hits in players like Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Tyler Eifert (out of 25 players clearing the threshold). The fact that this model has identified the *only* two Associated Press 1st Team Pro bowl Tight ends since the inception of the model suggest this model is very good at identifying high upside tight ends.

Though it's moving the bar somewhat, the associated ordinal test (AP 1st team, 2nd team, no pro bowl) comparing eventual pro bowls of combine participants above the 6% threshold to those below does yield a statistically significant p-value (though the assumptions of that test may be a bit questionable due to the small number of successes involved).

Applying this to my dynasty football league, I'll be stashing players like Kmet, Okwuegbunam, and Sullivan and looking to acquire predicted successes from last year's combine like T.J. Hockenson, Noah Fant, Foster Moreau, and Kahale Warring.