Using a
logistic regression model based on historical data of combine results and subsequent pro-bowl selections, it was determined that the probability of achieving a pro-bowl can be estimated from combine height, weight, vertical leap, and forty-yard dash times for any incoming tight-end combine participant. The resulting score (0-100%) is known as the Size Adjusted Vertical and Velocity Greatness Estimate (SAVVAGE). Though it is still in the
validation phase, the predetermined 6% threshold was found to predict both Travis Kelce and Tyler Eifert as future pro-bowlers.
So here are the numbers for the 2017 draft class:
| Name |
Hgt |
Wgt |
Dash |
Vert |
High-Pt |
Avg_P | SAVVAGE |
| Engram, Evan |
75.0 |
234 |
4.42 |
36 |
111.0 |
52.94 |
2.8% |
| Howard, O.J. |
78.0 |
251 |
4.51 |
30 |
108 |
55.65 |
5.4% |
| Kittle, George |
76.0 |
247 |
4.52 |
35 |
111 |
54.65 |
6.7% |
| Daniels, Darrell |
75.0 |
247 |
4.55 |
32 |
107 |
54.29 |
2.1% |
| Hodges, Bucky |
78.0 |
257 |
4.57 |
39 |
117 |
56.24 |
43.4% |
| Everett, Gerald |
75.0 |
239 |
4.62 |
37.5 |
112.5 |
51.73 |
2.2% |
| Smith, Jonnu |
75.0 |
248 |
4.62 |
38 |
113 |
53.68 |
6.6% |
| Njoku, David |
76.0 |
246 |
4.64 |
37.5 |
113.5 |
53.02 |
5.4% |
| Carter, Cethan |
75.0 |
241 |
4.68 |
? |
? |
51.50 | [ < 6%] |
| Sprinkle, Jeremy |
77.0 |
252 |
4.69 |
29 |
106 |
53.73 |
1.2% |
| Shaheen, Adam |
78.0 |
278 |
4.79 |
32.5 |
110.5 |
58.04 |
27.7% |
| Orndoff, Scott |
77.0 |
253 |
4.84 |
27 |
104 |
52.27 |
0.3% |
| Roberts, Michael |
76.0 |
270 |
4.86 |
30 |
106 |
55.56 |
3.2% |
| Plinke, Hayden |
76.0 |
264 |
4.97 |
28 |
104 |
53.12 |
0.5% |
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As compared to last year's prospects, this TE class looks much more athletic, with four of the fourteen participants looking like future pro-bowlers. It's fairly safe to say that Cethan Carter does not project as a future pro-bowler because he needs a 42.5 inch vertical to crack the 6% threshold. If any notable tight-end hopefuls are missing that you'd like to evaluate their pro-bowl potential or would like to speculate on missing measurements or added weight, you can use the
calculator on this site. Since these results are adjusted for size, a little
added weight can make a big difference.
