The Carrot:
To inspire you to read more of my posts, let me tell you a little about myself. The power of prediction is what lured me into pursing a Masters of Science in Statistics after earning an undergraduate degree in Pure Mathematics. If mathematics is the mother of all sciences, then surely statistics is her firstborn son. Few people realize that statistics is an entire field of study, rather than some numbers tacked onto a report at work or some poll in the newspaper. In fact, whenever I admit to being a statistician, the majority of people respond, "Oh, so you're a numbers guy." While that may be true, Statistics is SO much more than numbers: it's the systematic study of random variation and the production of meaningful models to understand an academic, financial, or competitive endeavor.
The Caveat:
After completing my graduate work in 2012, I've been applying my science to clinical research. Some days I doubt that statistics is powerful enough to meaningfully predict outcomes that depend so heavily on fickle human nature. Still, as George Box said, "all models are wrong; some models are useful." Since no model is perfect and good statisticians do "precision guesswork", please don't send me angry emails saying, "I applied the model you reported in such-and-such post and we lost a boatload of money," There is always a chance that the model prediction was wrong (due to false assumptions in the data or the modeling) or you got unlucky. Also, as you read these posts, I'd encourage you to approach all analysis with an open mind and tempered with common sense, as statistics should always be used for illumination, rather than support of a preconceived notion.
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