Model Validation: Tight ends from the 2013 draft class

To follow up on a previous post, let's look at some test data.  The training set (for model building) was all combine participants in the tight end position from 2005-2012.  As such, we'll look at the list of combine tight-end participants from 2013, and apply our logistic regression model for size adjusted speed and high point ability from the 2005-2012 data to separate players into two groups:  those with a higher predicted chance (>0.06) of pro-bowl success:

                Tyler Eifert (Bengals: 1^st Round)

                Vance McDonald (49ers: 2^nd)

                Travis Kelce (Chiefs: 3^rd)

                Dion Sims (Dolphins: 4^th)

                Nick Kasa (Raiders: 6^th)

                Chris Gragg (Bills: 7^th)

                Joseph Fauria (Lions:  Undrafted)

And those with a smaller probability of success (<0.06):

                Zach Ertz (Eagles: 2^nd Round)

                Gavin Escobar (Cowboys:  2^nd)

                Jordan Reed (Redskins: 3^rd)

                Levine Toilolo (Falcons: 4^th)

                Mychal Rivera (Raiders: 6^th)

                Justice Cunningham (Colts: 7^th)

                Jake Stoneburner (Packers:  Undrafted)

                Matt Furstenburg (Ravens:  Undrafted)

                MarQueis Gray (49ers:  Undrafted)

If we follow both groups of these players forward in time 3 years (to the present), we find 2 players (Tyler Eifert and Travis Kelce) from the top group were recently elected to a Pro-bowl, with Jordan Reed perhaps narrowly missing out on the honor (an 87-952-11 stat line from 14 games is certainly PB worthy).  With 7 players predicted to eventually make a pro-bowl, and 2 of them elected, we observe a true positive rate of 28.5% (=2/7) according to the derived algorithm, and a seemingly false positive rate of 72.5%.  Still, time may tell if more individuals from the either group make their mark as pro-bowlers.  Regardless, it does appear that the predictive algorithm based on size adjusted 40 time and high point potential did fairly well at predicting which players had a PB ceiling based on the data above.