Thanks to Ken Pomeroy we can compute a win probability for any match-up based on the teams' respective Pythagorean win percentage. In turn, using the probabilities from previous rounds, we can estimate the likelihood of a team advancing to any round once the tourney schedule is set. In theory this allows us to see the most likely winners in each slot of a potentially completed bracket.
Instead of titling by the ridiculously misleading regions, I'll just describe them by where they appear on the standard bracket (top left, top right, bottom left, bottom right) and list the probability of the team reaching the various rounds of the tournament. I advanced the favorite in each of the play-in games, but will update as that changes. Finally, use the BOLD to track the teams with the highest win probability of reaching each position:
| TOP RIGHT | Pyth | Round 1 | Sweet 16 | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Finals | Champs |
| Kansas 1 | 0.9503 | 96.9% | 75.5% | 57.4% | 37.3% | 26.0% | 15.4% |
| Austin Peay 16 | 0.3819 | 3.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colorado 8 | 0.7788 | 34.9% | 6.2% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Connecticut 9 | 0.8677 | 65.1% | 18.0% | 9.5% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Maryland 5 | 0.8725 | 72.6% | 39.9% | 13.4% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| South Dakota St. 12 | 0.7209 | 27.4% | 8.8% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| California 4 | 0.8767 | 68.8% | 39.3% | 13.5% | 5.6% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Hawaii 13 | 0.7635 | 31.2% | 12.0% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Arizona 6 | 0.8927 | 90.8% | 48.8% | 21.6% | 9.0% | 4.6% | 1.8% |
| Wichita St 11 | 0.4579 | 9.2% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Miami FL 3 | 0.8971 | 86.7% | 47.5% | 21.6% | 9.2% | 4.8% | 1.9% |
| Buffalo 14 | 0.5727 | 13.3% | 2.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Iowa 7 | 0.8832 | 76.2% | 29.9% | 14.5% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| Temple 10 | 0.703 | 23.8% | 4.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Villanova 2 | 0.9352 | 89.9% | 63.3% | 40.5% | 22.1% | 14.0% | 7.3% |
| UNC Asheville 15 | 0.6194 | 10.1% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Unsurprisingly, the overall number 1 seed is the favorite (15% probability), which isn't far off from the implied probability under the 1:5 odds posted on a popular Vegas book. Indeed, this method tends to yield boring picks, like often picking the higher seed. However, it seems like there are some interesting "underdogs" to pick to the sweet 16 this year in Maryland and Arizona.
| BOTTOM LEFT | Pyth | Round 1 | Sweet 16 | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Finals | Champ |
| Oregon 1 | 0.9123 | 96.6% | 65.7% | 41.9% | 23.9% | 11.0% | 4.9% |
| Holy Cross 16 | 0.2702 | 3.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Saint Joseph's 8 | 0.8159 | 45.5% | 14.6% | 6.3% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Cinncinati 9 | 0.8414 | 54.5% | 19.5% | 9.3% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Baylor 5 | 0.8705 | 60.7% | 33.5% | 15.3% | 7.1% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Yale 12 | 0.8132 | 39.3% | 17.6% | 6.3% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Duke 4 | 0.8752 | 72.3% | 39.9% | 18.7% | 8.9% | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| UNC Wilmington 13 | 0.729 | 27.7% | 9.0% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Texas 6 | 0.8487 | 68.1% | 31.7% | 13.6% | 5.9% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Northern Iowa 11 | 0.724 | 31.9% | 9.6% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Texas A&M 3 | 0.8923 | 83.6% | 54.2% | 28.2% | 14.9% | 6.1% | 2.4% |
| Green Bay 14 | 0.619 | 16.4% | 4.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oregon St. 7 | 0.7691 | 41.3% | 11.8% | 4.2% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| VCU 10 | 0.8259 | 58.7% | 20.9% | 9.1% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Oklahoma 2 | 0.9199 | 83.8% | 61.6% | 39.8% | 24.1% | 11.7% | 5.5% |
| Cal St. Bakersfield 15 | 0.6902 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
To comment on interesting upsets, it looks like VCU should beat Oregon state this year. If you're the type of person who always picks a 5-12 upset, Yale seems the better bet to upset (~40% win probability, UPDATE, they just beat Baylor...statistics, baby!). Finally, while Texas A&M would have been a nice sleeper here, the stronger Oklahoma looks poised to make a run to the final 4, provided they can edge out Oregon what looks to be a coin flip of a game (UPDATE: Holy Cross Victory makes slightly easier path for Oregon, giving them a small edge now over Oklahoma).
| Team | Pyth | Round 1 | Sweet 16 | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Finals | Champ |
| North Carolina 1 | 0.9407 | 94.7% | 75.9% | 48.0% | 32.1% | 17.5% | 10.2% |
| Florida Gulf Coast 16 | 0.4686 | 5.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| USC 8 | 0.7946 | 49.3% | 11.3% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Providence 9 | 0.7991 | 50.7% | 11.8% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Indiana 5 | 0.8959 | 81.9% | 40.0% | 17.4% | 9.2% | 3.7% | 1.6% |
| Chattanooga 12 | 0.6557 | 18.1% | 3.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kentucky 4 | 0.9198 | 83.2% | 51.9% | 25.9% | 15.4% | 7.2% | 3.7% |
| Stony Brook 13 | 0.6979 | 16.8% | 4.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Notre Dame 6 | 0.8131 | 55.4% | 17.9% | 7.3% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Michigan 11 | 0.7778 | 44.6% | 12.4% | 4.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| West Virginia 3 | 0.9236 | 70.1% | 52.8% | 34.4% | 17.5% | 8.4% | 4.4% |
| Stephen F. Austin 14 | 0.8378 | 29.9% | 17.0% | 7.6% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Wisconsin 7 | 0.839 | 56.2% | 24.6% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Pittsburgh 10 | 0.8024 | 43.8% | 16.7% | 6.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Xavier 2 | 0.8946 | 86.4% | 55.7% | 29.5% | 12.5% | 5.0% | 2.2% |
| Weber State 15 | 0.5717 | 13.6% | 3.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
With the exception of West Virginia to the Elite 8, there's not much excitement here.
| BOTTOM RIGHT | Pyth | Round 1 | Sweet 16 | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Finals | Champ |
| Virginia 1 | 0.9482 | 97.0% | 78.5% | 54.9% | 34.5% | 21.6% | 13.3% |
| Hampton 16 | 0.3639 | 3.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Texas Tech 8 | 0.8096 | 49.5% | 10.4% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Butler 9 | 0.8129 | 50.5% | 10.8% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Purdue 5 | 0.9078 | 71.4% | 43.1% | 18.3% | 8.9% | 4.3% | 2.0% |
| Arkansas Little Rock 12 | 0.7978 | 28.6% | 11.2% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Iowa State 4 | 0.8919 | 75.2% | 39.0% | 15.1% | 6.7% | 2.9% | 1.3% |
| Iona 13 | 0.731 | 24.8% | 6.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Seton Hall 6 | 0.8674 | 51.4% | 30.2% | 11.1% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Gonzaga 11 | 0.8609 | 48.6% | 27.9% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Utah 3 | 0.8547 | 75.2% | 36.1% | 12.5% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Fresno State 14 | 0.6595 | 24.8% | 5.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dayton 7 | 0.7806 | 45.3% | 9.7% | 3.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Syracuse 10 | 0.8111 | 54.7% | 13.3% | 5.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Michigan State 2 | 0.945 | 92.2% | 74.9% | 55.8% | 32.3% | 19.7% | 11.9% |
| Middle Tennessee 15 | 0.5926 | 7.8% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Looks like Virginia is the favorite to match-up against Kansas in the finals, and we have two interesting picks in Syracuse over Dayton in the opening round and Purdue to advance to the sweet 16 (over Iowa State).
To summarize, the expected "upsets" in the opening round are all 9 seeds and two 10 seeds (Syracuse and VCU), which is pretty conservative as we're simply selecting the favorite (highest probability). Into the sweet 16, we expect Maryland, Arizona, and Purdue to win over the respective 3 and 4 seeds they're likely to match up against. West Virginia is the only surprise to the elite 8, and Oklahoma is the only possible surprise to the final 4. Bear in mind these overview estimates don't consider potential home court advantage or match-up issues, so if you have an inkling about a team because they are close to home or match up well, you are wise to deviate at your own discretion.
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