The trouble is their size: Witten was an inch taller and 15 lbs heavier than Henry. That's a big difference in weight! According to the statistical model used in predicting tight-end pro-bowl status (recently featured on FootballOutsiders), Henry is unlikely to earn the honor at his current weight:
| Name | Hgt | Wgt | Dash | Vert | Hgt+Vert | Wgt/Dash | P(ProBowl) |
| Hunter Henry | 77 | 250 | 4.67 | 31.5 | 108.5 | 53.5 | 2.1% |
| Jason Witten | 78 | 264 | 4.65 | 31 | 109 | 56.8 | 11.8% |
According to the retrospective analysis of combine tight ends from 1999-2011 that was conducted previously, 6% probability is the optimal number for predicting pro-bowl appearance. This 6% was somewhat validated in the cohort of 2011-2013 tight-end combine participants, with Kelce (12.8%) and Eifert (6.6%) both making pro-bowls recently.
Modifying Henry's weight suggest he would need to put on 10 lbs (preferably of muscle to avoid sacrificing his 40 time or vertical leap) to achieve this 6% according to the aforementioned model. This isn't saying Henry can't be a pro-bowl tight end, I'm just saying he still may have some work in the weight room before he has the mass required to compete in the NFL as a tight-end.
dude put up 20+ reps at his pro day he'll be fine
ReplyDeleteI think you're suggested that his lighter build won't be an issue when it comes to blocking. However, pro-bowl selection usually depends on yardage and touchdowns. As such, it's not surprising that bench wasn't a significant factor in predicting pro-bowl status. However, weight may have a lot to do with total yards a tight-end can manage, as it may affect yards after contact.
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