Sunday, April 24, 2016

Potential position change for J.J. Watt

The Houston Texans know that J.J. Watt is one versatile athlete.  Prior to his ill-fated rushing attempt as an H-back in last season's wildcard playoff loss to the Chiefs, Watt had some success catching touchdown passes.  In this moonlighting as a tight-end the 2014-2015 season, Watt caught all three short touchdown passes for a total 4 yards. While Watt was undefended in his first TD against the Raiders, he had defenders draped all over him for both of the other touchdown catches.  How can one argue with this kind of athleticism from the 289 pound defensive back?


While the 2014-2015 season is certainly a small and heavily biased sample of red-zone usage to evaluate Watt's potential as a tight-end, there are more numbers to consider.  An exploratory analysis of size adjusted combine measures in TE success estimated that J.J. Watt would have had a 77% chance of being a pro-bowl tight-end, provided he participated in the combine and entered the league at this position.  This model was built solely from combine events, but does indicate that Watt's ceiling as a tight-end was sky high.

Indeed, Watt's ridiculous 4.84 forty-yard dash at 290 pounds corresponds to a weight-adjusted 40-time even higher than the freakishly-athletic, power-lifting Vernon Davis.  Watt's 37 inch vertical and 77 inch frame correspond to a height-complemented-vertical of 114 inches, which is a half-inch higher than that of pro-bowler Greg Olsen.  This athleticism is jaw-dropping when one considers that Watt weighs 35 lbs more than most pass-catching tight-ends in the NFL.  Also, it's reasonable to speculate that  the force that can propel Watt's nearly 300 lbs over three feet into the air can adequately block an opposing defensive end.  This is particularly true when we consider that Watt is armed with the full knowledge of the arsenal of trick that other DE's in the league are likely to have at their disposal.

While position changes are certainly rare in the NFL, tight-end is hardly foreign to Watt: he played the position as a freshman for the Chippewas of Central Michigan back in 2007.  Granted, Watt only caught a meager 8 passes of 11 targets (72.9% catch rate) for 77 yards and no TDs, but he joked that his limited usage was due to Antonio Brown "hogging all the targets."  Indeed, Brown had over 130 targets in 2007.  Is it any wonder Watt chose to transfer to Wisconsin and walk on as a defensive end?

Clearly this All-Pro is better off signing ridiculous contracts as the dominant Defensive End that he has worked to become for as long as possible.  However, Watt has been quoted saying his retirement will come when he finds competing at DE isn't fun any more, but perhaps he could consider a "semi-retirement" to the other side of the ball?  Maybe the one thing more fun than sacking a quarterback is catching their touchdown passes.  Last I checked, you can see all five of Watt's 2014 touchdowns on NFL.com.  It sure looks like fun to me.

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