Ranking Size-Adjusted Athleticism of 2016 Tight-End Draft Class

Using a logistic regression model based on historical data of combine results and subsequent pro-bowl selections, it was determined that the probability of achieving a pro-bowl can be estimated from combine height, weight, vertical leap, and forty-yard dash times for any incoming tight-end combine participant.  Here are the numbers for the 2016 draft class:

Name	Hgt	Wgt	Dash	Vert	HighPt	Avg_P	P(PB)
Henry, Hunter	77	255	4.67	31.5	108.5	54.6	3.6%
Sandland, Beau	76	253	4.74	35	111	53.4	3.5%
Hooper, Austin	76	254	4.72	33	109	53.8	2.7%
Braunecker, Ben	75	250	4.73	35.5	110.5	52.9	2.4%
Adams, Jerell	77	247	4.64	32.5	109.5	53.2	2.3%
Vannett, Nick	78	257	4.89	30.5	108.5	52.6	1.2%
Malleck, Ryan	76	247	4.81	34.5	110.5	51.4	1.1%
Williams, Bryce	78	257	4.94	29.5	107.5	52.0	0.7%
Anderson, Stephen	74	230	4.63	38	112	49.7	0.7%
Hemingway, Temarrick	77	244	4.71	30.5	107.5	51.8	0.6%
Morgan, David	76	262	5.02	30	106	52.2	0.5%
McGee, Jake	77	250	4.84	28.5	105.5	51.7	0.4%
Grinnage, David	77	248	4.9	29.5	106.5	50.6	0.3%
Duarte, Thomas	74	231	4.72	33.5	107.5	48.9	0.1%

If any notable tight-end hopefuls are missing that you'd like to evaluate their pro-bowl potential, you can use the calculator that was posted previously.  Since these results are adjusted for size, we can see that the low probabilities are generally a result of this class of tight-ends being slightly undersized in terms of weight.  For example, if Hunter Henry had another 10 pounds of muscle with the same speed and vertical, his numbers would be almost identical to Jason Witten and would therefore possess the greater than 6% predicted probability that tends to associated with pro-bowl selection in our historical data set.