A retrospective analysis of combine participant tight-ends suggested that four key variables interact to affect size adjusted athleticism in terms of the High Point Potential (Height + Vertical) and Average Momentum in the 40 yard dash (Weight/Dash). These two factors were found to strongly correlated with pro-bowl selection in the data. While this model is still being validated to confirm its predictive value, I'm optimistically christening it with a convenient and appropriate acronym, BEAST, for Better Estimate of Athleticism by Size Transformation. Here is the current state of the Raven's already deep TE rotation (depth chart courtesy of Rotoworld). Athleticism is presented in terms of 40 yard dash and vertical leaps alongside height and weight.
| Name | Age | Height | Weight | Dash | Vert | High-Pt | Avg_P | BEAST |
| Ben Watson | 35 | 76 | 258 | 4.57 | 35.5 | 111.5 | 56.5 | 17.6% |
| Crockett Gillmore | 24 | 78 | 270 | 4.89 | 33.5 | 111.5 | 55.2 | 9.9% |
| Maxx Williams | 22 | 76 | 250 | 4.78 | 34.5 | 110.5 | 52.3 | 1.8% |
| Dennis Pitta | 30 | 76 | 245 | 4.72 | 34 | 110 | 51.9 | 1.3% |
| Darren Waller | 23 | 78 | 260 | 4.46 | 37 | 115 | 58.3 | 58.0% |
The aforementioned retrospective data analysis suggested that 6% is the optimal cut-point differentiating eventual pro-bowl caliber athletes in the tight-end position from their more work-a-day counterparts. By this criteria, it looks like the Ravens roster has 3 potential pro-bowlers! However, some caution should be taken with Gillmore, as the 10 pounds he's gained since joining the league is the difference between exceeding 6% or not, and we don't have updated data on his vertical leap or dash-time since gaining this weight. A similar caveat may apply to Darren Waller, though his score far exceeded the 6% cutoff (~18%) before the 15 pounds he added recently.
Baltimore wasn't the only city stockpiling weapons of mass destruction. The Patriots acquired Martellus Bennett from the Bears and signed Clay Harbor, the free agent out of Jacksonville. The year before (2015) they made a similar acquisition of converted offensive tackle, Michael Williams. Based on these recent moves, here's the current state of the Patriots depth at TE:
| Player Name | Age | Height | Weight | Dash | Vert | High-Pt | Avg_P | ~Prob(PB) |
| Rob Gronkowski | 26 | 78 | 264 | 4.68 | 33.5 | 111.5 | 56.4 | 17.2% |
| Martellus Bennett | 29 | 79 | 273 | 4.68 | 34 | 113 | 58.3 | 45.9% |
| AJ Derby | 24 | 77 | 255 | 4.72 | ? | ? | 54.0 | ? |
| Michael Williams | 25 | 78 | 304 | 5.19 | 25.5 | 103.5 | 58.6 | 8.0% |
| Clay Harbor | 28 | 75 | 250 | 4.69 | 40 | 115 | 53.3 | 8.8% |
It looks like the Patriots may roster as many as 4 potential pro-bowler tight-ends based on the previously established 6% rule. Again, these numbers may be somewhat misleading, as the computations driving the estimated pro-bowl probability are built upon combine numbers where Bennett and Williams have both put on significant weight since joining the league. In both cases, this weight made the difference in exceeding the 6% threshold, again based upon the sketchy assumption that weight gain didn't affect speed and jumping ability. In Bennett's case, his estimate is so high that some sensitivity analysis suggests that he's likely over the 6% threshold even if both his speed or vertical has suffered as much as a 5% reduction (Update: Michael Williams suffered a torn ACL in OTAs in June and is still waiting for swelling to reduce before attempting corrective surgery).
In conclusion, the Ravens and Patriots appear to be stacked in the tight-end position. However, due to non-synchronicity in the timing of available data, it may be only the top and the bottom of the depth chart that exceed the 6% threshold for both teams. This is a less exciting prospect, as holding a potential top 10 tight end with an athletic project tight-end waiting in the wings is pretty much the goal of every organization.
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