Effect of Weight gain on SAVVAGE score

After much deliberation, I've decided to re-brand my Size Adjusted Probowl Prediction score with a catchier acronym.  The metric detailed previously on this blog will be known from henceforth as Size Adjusted Velocity and Vertical Athletic Greatness Estimate, or SAVVAGE for short.  While I had some hope to add college production numbers to the metric, I've realized that the frequency of crossover athletes entering the NFL gives the simple version more value.  Please be aware this model is still being validated using prospective data analysis, but the model correctly predicted both Tyler Eifert and Travis Kelce in the validation phase of this metric already.

To explore the change in SAVVAGE due to weight gains, let's consider a couple of intriguing wide-receivers who, like just like Shannon Sharpe, converted to tight-end in their early NFL years.  Take these numbers with a grain of salt as applying this model to these players is an extrapolation since the training set was all NFL combine participants in the tight-end position from 2000-2011.

Darren Waller Combine Values (2015):
Vertical: 37 inches
Height: 78 inches
High Point:  115 inches
Dash:  4.46 seconds
Weight: 245 pounds
Avg Momentum: 54.9
Probowl odds: 1 in 4.3
SAVVAGE score: 18.7%

Darren Waller in 2016:
Weight: 260 lbs
Avg Momentum: 58.3
Probowl odds: 1 in 0.78
SAVVAGE score: 58%

Under the rather generous assumption that Waller maintained his ridiculous 37 inch vertical and 4.46 speed, this would be the 2nd highest known SAVVAGE score to date, being second only to Vernon Davis.   Despite the questionable assumptions, the change observed in his SAVVAGE score really illustrates the value of weight and speed for success as an NFL tight-end.  Still as it recently came to light that Waller tested positive for performance enhancing drugs, it's possible that most of this weight is muscle and he may have retained this ridiculous athleticism for the most part.

Let's also Niles Paul, another converted wide-receiver out of Nebraska, of slightly smaller stature and less ridiculous athleticism.  After gaining 26 pounds over his 5 years in the league, it's a bit absurd to think he's still as fast as he was at 224.  However, the goal is to explore how a hypothetical weight change can affect one's SAVVAGE score.

Niles Paul (2011 combine):
Vertical: 34.5 inches
Height: 73 inches
High Point:  107.5 inches
Dash:  4.51 seconds
Weight: 224 pounds
Avg Momentum: 49.7
Probowl odds: 1 in 479
SAVVAGE score: 0.2%

Niles Paul (2015):
Weight: 241 pounds
Avg Momentum: 53.4
Probowl odds: 1 in 64
SAVVAGE score: 1.5%

Niles Paul (2016):
Weight: 250 pounds
Avg Momentum: 55.4
Probowl odds: 1 in 22
SAVVAGE score: 4.3%

While Paul still doesn't quite top the 6% threshold that has historically done well at predicting Probowl appearances, it does go to show what a difference that weight plays in this size-speed equation.  The reader is encouraged to plug the combine metrics of an NFL tight-end into this calculator and play with the numbers a bit to see what changes correspond to big changes in their SAVVAGE score.